Tuesday, August 12, 2008

"In a hurry, will pay"

One of the persistent dreams for future transportation is a road/vehicle/transportation network in which personal vehicles (cars) talk to each other. The hoped-for result is to create a smoother traffic flow with fewer (or no) traffic jams or accidents.

If cars are talking to each other, then it should be entirely possible for you to program your vehicle to offer to pay/bribe other vehicles (and their occupying passengers) to move our of your way. Emergency vehicles will already, I expect, have this power - - so why not create a system that allows your car to implement the same "get out of my way" program for a price?

But such a system might not be so simple. In many urban areas (especially DC) everyone will program their cars to scream "I AM IMPORTANT! MOVE!!!" And because everyone has programmed their vehicles to be important, no one will move, and no one will benefit.

To solve this impasse we turn to the economist's favorite tool - pricing. For most economists, the creation and function of prices is the equivalent of duct tape, a good knife, all-purpose oil/grease, and adjustable pliers all rolled into one. Prices hold things together, allowing people within a market to trade with each other and function as one unit. Prices remove and separate unwanted or unproductive portions of the economic structure, resulting in concentration of resources on productive uses. Prices speed and smooth interaction between the various elements of an economy, allowing greatly reduced friction (transaction cost) and less wasted energy. Prices continually adjust to best regulate the good or service being traded, adjusting much faster and more precisely than human-controlled mechanisms ever could.

But how do prices help us solve our priority-auto-driving problem? Well, the simplest way would be to have each driver program a price at which (s)he is willing to move out of the way for other drivers. In this case your vehicle would automatically accept a move request, and payment, from the vehicle of a driver who is willing to pay more than the minimum you have set. You could even allow drivers to change their prices on the fly. Say you have an important meeting to rush to. You set your "priority price" at $0.75 and set off. Many people move out of your way, but as traffic gets heavy and you are forced to slow, you look up from your laptop and instruct your car to offer $0.80. That doesn't free you, so you increase your "bid" to a full $1.00. That does the trick, and you are soon zooming on your way.

You, as the driver, may also opt to allow your car to automatically increase your bid to whatever level is necessary (or some maximum you pre-select) to buy speedy passage.

Both of these methods are, however, potentially subject to what economists call the "holdout problem."

Presumably, drivers of vehicles would be able to set not only their "priority price" - the price they will pay to pass others - but also their "move aside price", the price they expect to receive before they will reduce their own speed or change lanes for someone else.

A holdout would potentially occur if, for example, you are trying to hurry your way through heavy traffic and, instead of allowing you to pay them and move out of your way, the vehicle in front of you sees your hurry and simply increases its prices. Dramatically. Before you know it, you might be asked to pay $50 or more before the person in front of you will move out of the lane.

One potential way of solving this problem would be to program your vehicle to hold a brief, almost instantaneous, auction. By communicating with the vehicles in relevant positions around you, your car could determine whether it would be cheaper/faster to negotiate a path around the recalcitrant vehicle in front of you rather than buy him off. Though you may run into areas (especially around DC) where everyone expects a fair amount to cede right-of-way, peoples' self-interest should give them enough incentive to accept your offer before someone else does.

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